A final look at the FCS Playoff bubble teams

CARBONDALE, Ill. — The day after a 30-point win over No. 11-ranked Illinois State, Saluki Football is just hours away from finding out its postseason fate. The FCS Playoff bracket will be announced at 11 a.m. Central on ESPNU.

Two surprising outcomes from yesterday’s games had a signifiant effect on the field. Yale beat undefeated Harvard to claim the Ivy League automatic bid, meaning the Ivy becomes a two-bid league. South Dakota State rallied from a two-touchdown deficit to beat North Dakota, snapping a four-game losing streak and meaning SDSU likely played its way back into the field.

A handful of FCS experts have weighed in since last night’s games were completed. Sports Illustrated, OptaAnalyst and Hero Sports do not have SIU in the field.

The general consensus is that 10 teams are on the bubble, competing for the final FOUR spots. Here’s a quick sketch of those teams, ordered by Massey Ratings.

Bubble Teams

North Dakota, 7-5 (MVFC)

Massey Rating: 6 (NC)

Signature wins: Youngstown State, Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois, 7-5 (MVFC)

Massey Rating: 15 (+6)

Signature win: Illinois State

SE Louisiana, 9-3 (Southland)

Massey Rating: 21 (+1)

Signature win: None

Northern Arizona (Big Sky)

Massey Rating: 23 (-5)

Signature win: None

Austin Peay, 7-5 (UAC)

Massey Rating: 24 (+1)

Signature win: MTSU

Southern Utah, 7-5 (UAC)

Massey Rating: 25 (+1)

Signature wins: Abilene Christian, Austin Peay

New Hampshire, 8-4 (CAA)

Massey Rating: 28 (+2)

Signature win: Monmouth

Monmouth, 9-3 (CAA)

Massey Rating: 29 (-6)

Signature win: Villanova

Bad loss: Albany

Lamar, 8-4 (Southland)

Massey Rating: 32 (-1)

Signature wins: South Dakota, SE Louisiana

Bad loss: McNeese State

Lafayette, 8-4 (Patriot)

Massey Rating: 40 (-3)

Signature win: None

Which four will the committee select?

First, the committee consists of athletic directors from 10 FCS conferences. They aren’t supposed to select teams based on conference affiliation, but If they pick both North Dakota and SIU, that would mean seven Valley teams are in the field (NDSU, USD, YSU, ILS and SDSU are all locks to get in). Are seven Valley teams deserving? The power rankings surely think so.

Second, the committee traditionally puts a higher weighting on overall record than power ratings. Will they be able to resist putting in two 9-3 teams (SE Louisiana and Monmouth) over seven-win SIU?

I firmly believe SIU is one of the top 15 teams in the FCS and should be in the field, but based on the committee’s history, I suspect the last four teams they select will be North Dakota, SE Louisiana, Lamar and Monmouth. I hope I'm wrong.

If the committee digs deeper than wins and losses, it will notice that Monmouth lost to a 1-10 team (Albany) yesterday. All of Southern’s FCS losses came to teams that are in the field. Could that be the deciding factor that puts SIU into the playoffs?

We’ll know in just a few short hours.