FCS Playoffs First Round predictions

FCS Playoff Bracket

CARBONDALE, Ill. — The FCS Playoffs begin on Saturday with eight games that feature five Missouri Valley Football Conference teams. The games start at 11 a.m. on ESPN+, and since many of them overlap, get ready to do a lot of channel-flipping.

The most interesting contests of the day are Harvard at Villanova, Illinois State at SE Louisiana, North Dakota at Tennessee Tech, and New Hampshire at South Dakota State.

Here’s a breakdown of each game and our projected winner.

Yale (8-2) at 15 Youngstown State (8-4), 11 AM

Yale stole a bid by beating Harvard last Saturday and will play in its first-ever playoff game. The Bulldogs can score, averaging nearly 30 points per game. Running back Josh Pitsenberger has 1,238 yards on the season and QB Dante Reno, a South Carolina transfer, has thrown for 2,040 yards and 17 TDs. Yale’s run defense has been a strength, allowing just 109 yards per game, and it will need to be against YSU.

Safe to say Yale has never seen a quarterback like Beau Brungard, who leads the nation with a staggering 47 touchdowns — 23 passing, 24 rushing. He has 1,378 yards rushing. Max Tomczak is one of the top receivers in the nation. YSU has given up some points this year, allowing 30 per game, but they’ve won five of their last six games and haven’t scored fewer than 30 points during that stretch. Hard to see Yale keeping up.

Projected Winner: Youngstown State

Central Connecticut State (8-4) at 9 Rhode Island (10-2), 11 AM

Champions of the Northeast Conference, the Blue Devils are making their second-straight playoff appearance and fourth overall. The offense is led by UMass transfer Brady Olson, who led the league with 2,821 passing yards, and Virginia Tech transfer Elijah Howard, who rushed for 1,078 yards. CCSU doesn’t have any standout wins. They squeaked past Sacred Heart and Wagner in overtime.

Rhody won 10 games and won the Colonial, but didn’t have to play the best two teams in the conference, Villanova and Monmouth. Still, they won their last six games and did so by impressive margins. Quarterback Devin Farrell is undersized at 6-foot, but is sixth in the nation in passing yards (3,086). The defense allows just 19 points per game and is led by linebacker AJ Pena, who has 9.0 sacks and 61 tackles.

Projected Winner: Rhode Island

Harvard (9-1) at 12 Villanova (11-1), 11 AM

Somehow, the Ivy League is a two-bid league in their first season of FCS Playoff eligibility. The Crimson are making their first playoff appearance with an at-large selection after losing to arch-rival Yale last week. Harvard can score points — averaging 39.4 per game, while the defense allows only 18.1. Quarterback Jaden Craig has thrown for 2,762 yards, but level of competition is a major question mark for the Crimson.

Nova hasn’t lost a game since September, winning eight-straight games overall, and has a 22-game home winning streak. Quarterback Pat McQuaide is solid, if not spectacular, and the offense only turned the ball over five times all season. The offense lost Payton Award watch list running back David Avit to injury in Week 9, and that’s been a big blow to the offense. They should be able to handle Harvard, but this is one of the more fascinating games of weekend.

Projected Winner: Villanova

Illinois State (8-4) at 16 Southeastern Louisiana (9-3), 12 PM

The Redbirds were on a roll, winning four-straight games, until SIU took them to the woodshed last Saturday. Was that a one-game anomaly or has ISU peaked? Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse led the league in passing touchdowns (28) and Daniel Sobkowicz led the league in receiving touchdowns (11). They will have their hands full against a powerful SELA defense. Illinois State plays well on the road, winning their last three road games, including victories over South Dakota and South Dakota State.

The Lions are making their first postseason appearance since 2022. They have two quarterbacks who split duty — Carson Camp is the team’s leading passer, while Kyle Lowe is their second-leading rusher. They have a superstar wide receiver in Jaylon Domingeaux, who has nearly 800 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defense is the strength of this SELA team. They have the Southland’s Player of the Year in defensive tackle Kaleb Proctor, who has eight sacks and is projected to be an NFL draft pick. Linebacker KK Reno has 119 tackles and was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year.

Projected Winner: Illinois State

North Dakota (7-5) at 13 Tennessee Tech (11-1), 12 PM

The Fighting Hawks went from a potential top 8 seed to playing on the road in the first round. They lost three of the their last four games, but all of them were by five points or less against playoff teams South Dakota, NDSU and SDSU. Quarterback Jerry Kaminski is solid, but it’s UND’s rushing attack of Sawyer Seidl and Jerry Kaminski that can control a game. They also have an excellent defense. The weather forecast looks miserable, and that may favor UND.

Tennessee Tech has an explosive offense that averages 40 points per game. Eastern Washington transfer Kekoa Visperas is an undersized QB, but is a talented thrower and runner. TTU has a stable of explosive receivers in Noah Robinson, Maury Sullivan, Tre’ Holloway and Brian Courtney. Does UND have the capacity to contain them? The defense allows only 17 points per game. The biggest question mark for the Golden Eagles? They played a weak schedule. Two weeks ago they played at Kentucky and that game offered some clues. They lost, 42-10, but averaged 4.3 yards per carry and allowed only 5.3 yards per carry to an SEC opponent. That’s just enough evidence to suggest TTU is for real.

Projected Winner: North Dakota

New Hampshire (8-4) at 14 South Dakota State (8-4), 12 PM

The Wildcats were the last team to slip into the field. Earlier in the season, they lost to Dartmouth, but righted the ship and ended the season with five-straight wins. Six-foot quarterback Matt Vezza is having a nice sophomore year as a dual-threat QB with 19 passing and eight rushing TDs. Defense is New Hampshire’s strength, allowing 21 points per game.

The Jackrabbits saved their season with a comeback win at North Dakota last week, but there is still a big question mark at quarterback. Jack Henry, who is filling in for the injured Chase Mason, has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. He only completed six passes last week, albeit in a miraculous win at UND. SDSU has history on its side — it’s made 14-straight playoff appearances and numerous deep runs — but a team that lost to Indiana State late in the season isn’t going very far in the playoffs. Everything changes if Mason returns.

Projected Winner: New Hampshire

Drake (8-3) at 11 South Dakota (8-4), 12 PM

The Bulldogs won the Pioneer League by winning a bunch of close games. Early in the season, they played both South Dakota State and South Dakota, and were soundly beaten. Their offense revolves around the running game with running back Nick Herman and QB Logan Inagawa. Inagawa is a 5-foot-10 freshman who is a dangerous runner, but doesn’t throw it especially well. Defensively, Drake only gives up 16 points per game.

The Coyotes finished the season by winning six of their last seven. They have a punishing ground game behind L.J. Phillips Jr. and a steady quarterback in Aidan Bouman. Their defense is solid. South Dakota is also coming off a bye week. It’s a safe bet that the well-rested Coyotes will have little trouble with Drake.

Projected Winner: South Dakota

Lamar (8-4) at 10 Abilene Christian (8-4), 12 PM

Lamar limped into the playoffs losing three of their last four games. The Cardinals have a strong defense, but have trouble scoring. They haven’t hit 20 points in a game since October. Sophomore QB Aiden McCown has only thrown eight TD against six picks this season. Safety Kristian Pugh is one of the top tacklers in the nation and also has four interceptions. If they’re going to have a chance, they will need to figure out a way to put points on the board.

ACU has won four-straight heading into the playoffs. The Wildcats are led by senior quarterback Stone Earle, a dual-threat QB who has thrown for 19 touchdowns and rushed for 10. They also have an excellent run defense, led by linebacker Rashon Myles Jr. who has 103 tackles on the year. ACU has some impressive wins this season, including a win over No. 4 seed Tarleton State.

Projected Winner: Abilene Christian