Making sense of the murky MVFC playoff picture
- Tom Weber
- Nov 2
- 6 min read
Updated: 7 days ago
CARBONDALE, Ill. — Two upsets and one near-upset in the Missouri Valley Football Conference turned the playoff picture murky for six of the seven teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot with three weeks left in the regular season.
History tells us that at least four Valley teams will make the 24-team field. Just when it seemed we had handle on which teams were a lock, Indiana State pulled off a shocking win at South Dakota State. Then, a North Dakota team that steamrolled its first four conference opponents was upset at South Dakota. Finally, Youngstown State went to the Fargodome and nearly pulled off the unthinkable, before falling, 38-30, to the mighty Bison.
StrongDawgs will help you make sense of it all with a closer look at the seven teams still in the mix for playoff spots, their current odds, and their most plausible path to obtain a coveted bid. Also at stake are potential first-round “byes” that come with a top-8 seed.
North Dakota State (9-0, 6-0) LOCK
Best wins: Southern Illinois (45-17), at South Dakota State (38-7), Youngstown State (38-30)
Remaining games: at North Dakota, Northern Iowa, St. Thomas
The Bison have nothing to worry about — they’re in the playoffs regardless of what happens the rest of the way. They are also the overwhelming favorite to earn the No. 1 seed, unless something shocking happens and they lose a game. "Only" beating Youngstown State by a touchdown puts a tiny crack in their inevitability. This week’s game at North Dakota will be their most difficult challenge.
North Dakota (6-3, 4-1) LIKELY
Best wins: Youngstown State (35-17), Southern Illinois (38-19)
Remaining games: North Dakota State, at Murray State, South Dakota State
Even after losing last week at South Dakota, UND is in excellent shape to get a bid. A likely win at Murray State in Week 11 would give the Fighting Hawks seven wins and guarantee they finish no worse than 5-3 in the league. They already have quality wins over SIU and Youngstown State. They can pad their resume and make the case for a Top-8 seed with a win over NDSU or SDSU.
