StrongDawgs FCS Playoff field and bubble teams

CARBONDALE, Ill. — If we were on the committee, here’s how StrongDawgs would see the FCS Playoff field, ranked 1-24.

StrongDawgs gives more weight to “signature wins” and power rankings than pure wins & losses. The committee may see it differently.

The field is partly based on where things stand today, plus projected outcomes this weekend. Of course, the field could significantly change based on those outcomes.

As of now, UC Davis, Southern Utah, Austin Peay and New Hampshire are our last four in, but they are all in precarious positions, due to potential bid stealers and bubble teams that have opportunities for signature wins.

StrongDawgs FCS Playoff Field, Nov. 20, 2025

1 North Dakota State, 11-0 (MVFC)

The Bison will take care of business vs. St. Thomas and earn the No. 1 seed.

Signature wins: South Dakota, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota State, Youngstown State, North Dakota

2 Montana, 11-0 (Big Sky)

The winner of Montana State at Montana will take the Big Sky auto bid. The loser will drop to the 3-5 seed.

Signature wins: North Dakota, Sacred Heart, Sacramento State

3 Montana State, 9-2 (Big Sky)

See above.

Signature wins: Northern Arizona, UC Davis

4 Tarleton State, 10-1 (UAC)

Tarleton wins the UAC auto bid by beating Austin Peay and holds on to a Top 5 seed. With a loss, they still hold on to a Top 8 seed.

Signature wins: Army, Southern Utah

5 Lehigh, 11-0 (Patriot)

The Mountain Hawks win the Patriot auto bid with a win at Lafayette.

Signature win: None

6 Harvard, 9-0 (Ivy)

The Crimson take the Ivy auto bid with a win at Yale.

Signature win: None

7 Tennessee Tech, 10-1 (OVC)

A win vs. UT Martin clinches an OVC auto bid, while a loss drops them out of the Top 8.

Signature win: None

8 South Dakota, 8-4 (MVFC)

It’s difficult to separate the Valley teams. The Coyotes have three signature wins and won six of last seven games.

Signature wins: North Dakota, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois

9 Illinois State, 8-3 (MVFC)

The Redbirds could move up with a win vs. Southern Illinois.

Signature wins: South Dakota, South Dakota State

10 North Dakota, 7-4 (MVFC)

If the Fighting Hawks beat South Dakota State, it puts a seed into consideration.

Signature wins: Youngstown State, Southern Illinois

11 Mercer, 9-1 (Southern)

The Bears have clinched the Southern auto bid. The Bears will lose at Auburn. They did lose to Presbyterian and have no signature wins. Some have them ranked higher.

Signature win: None

12 Stephen F. Austin, 9-2 (Southland)

The Lumberjacks have clinched the Southland auto bid and will have little trouble beating Northwestern State.

Signature win: Lamar

13 Monmouth, 9-2 (CAA)

The Hawks will handle Albany to earn a bid. A shocking loss would put them on the bubble, though.

Signature win: Villanova

14 Rhode Island, 9-2 (CAA)

The Rams should have little trouble locking up the CAA auto bid by beating Hampton, but they have no signature wins.

Signature win: None

15 Abilene Christian, 7-4 (UAC)

Abilene has three signature wins. Even a loss to 3-8 Central Arkansas should keep them in the field.

Signature wins: Tarleton State, Stephen F. Austin, Austin Peay

Bad loss: UIW

16 Villanova, 8-2 (CAA)

A win over Sacred Heart should put ‘Nova in the field.

Signature win: New Hampshire

17 Youngstown State, 7-4 (MVFC)

A likely win at Northern Iowa secures a bid for the Penguins. A shocking loss would put them on the bubble.

Signature wins: Illinois State, Southern Illinois

18 Lamar, 8-3 (Southland)

If the Cardinals beat McNeese they’re in, but a loss puts them on the bubble.

Signature wins: South Dakota, SE Louisiana

19 UC Davis, 7-3 (Big Sky)

A win vs. Sacramento State should secure a bid, while a loss makes things very uncomfortable.

Signature win: Northern Arizona

20 Southern Utah, 6-5 (UAC)

Must win at North Alabama and hope for an APSU loss.

Signature wins: Abilene Christian, Austin Peay

21 Austin Peay, 7-4 (UAC)

The Govs must win at Tarleton State. They're hanging around because of the MTSU win, but that likely won't be enough if a team below them pulls off an upset.

Signature win: MTSU

22 New Hampshire, 7-4 (CAA)

Must beat Maine to stay on the bubble.

Signature win: Monmouth

23 Drake, 7-3 (Pioneer)

Either Drake or Presbyterian will take the Pioneer auto bid.

24 Central Connecticut State, (NEC)

Either CCSU or Duquesne will take the NEC auto bid

Win and they're in

25 South Dakota State, 7-4 (MVFC)

Losers of four-straight, the Jackrabbits are a difficult team to project. If Chase Mason returns and the Jacks win at North Dakota, they earn a bid based on quality wins alone. A fifth-straight loss would be fatal.

Signature wins: Montana State, Sacramento State, Youngstown State

Bad loss: Indiana State

Potential Bid Stealers

Yale, 7-2 (Ivy)

If Yale beats Harvard, it takes the auto bid.

UT Martin, 6-5 (OVC)

If UT Martin beats Tennessee Tech, it takes the auto bid.

Lafayette, 8-3 (Patriot)

If Lafayette beats Lehigh, it takes the auto bid.

Win and still need help

28 SE Louisiana, 8-3 (Southland)

The Lions need to beat Nicholls to stay on the bubble and hope that no one below them picks up a signature win, because they don’t have one, either.

Signature win: None

29 Southern Illinois, 6-5 (MVFC)

A signature win at Illinois State puts the Salukis on the bubble.

Signature win: None

30 Sacred Heart, 8-3 (CAA)

A signature win at Villanova puts Sacred Heart on the bubble.

Signature win: None

31 Sacramento State, 7-4 (Big Sky)

A signature win at UC Davis puts Sac State on the bubble.

Signature win: None

32 Dartmouth, 7-2 (Ivy)

Some have Dartmouth higher, but they lost to Penn and the New Hampshire win isn't enough to get them in.

Signature win: New Hampshire

33 Northern Arizona, 7-4 (Big Sky)

The Lumberjacks need to beat Weber State just to stay in the conversation, but have no signature wins.

Signature win: None