Upsetting an FBS program is getting harder for FCS teams

CARBONDALE, Ill. — In 2025, FCS teams are finding it even more difficult to pull off an upset of an FBS program than in previous years.

Through Week Four, 116 FCS versus FBS games have been played. FCS teams have won only four of those contests.

• Tarleton State beat Army, 30-27 (2 OT)

• Austin Peay beat MTSU, 34-14

• Bryant beat UMass, 27-26

• Long Island beat Eastern Michigan, 28-23

How does four wins compare historically? In the last 20 years, only twice has the FCS fared worse — in 2008 (2 wins) and 2019 (3 wins).

In 2021, there were 12 FCS upsets. It’s likely no coincidence that the rise of NIL collectives after the 2021 season coincides with the decline in upsets the last four seasons.

The Missouri Valley Football Conference has mirrored the recent national trend. In the last four seasons, Southern Illinois is the only MVFC program to beat an FBS opponent, with wins over Northwestern (2022) and Northern Illinois (2023).

With wins over Northwestern and Northern Illinois, SIU is the only MVFC school to beat an FBS program in the last four years.

The rest of the MVFC is 0-38 during that span, including 0-12 combined by the Dakotas. (It should be noted that North Dakota State is 9-5 all-time against the FBS, but it’s only opportunities the last four years were at Arizona and Colorado, both close losses.)

The numbers are worse when it comes to the FCS vs. Power 4. In the last four years, there have only been two upsets of Power 4 teams — Sacramento State beat Stanford in 2023, and of course, SIU beat Northwestern in 2022.

NIL and easy access to the transfer portal are funneling top FCS talent to the FBS on an annual basis.

The Salukis lost nine players who started games on last year’s team to the portal, plus one key backup. Here’s a quick look at how they’re faring at their new schools.

• WR Keontez Lewis, Oklahoma (17 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs)

• S Desman Hearns, Wyoming (14 tackles, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble)

• LB Ben Bogle, West Virginia (11 tackles, 1 QB hurry)

• CB Jamir Conn, Nebraska (6 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 PBU)

• DE Jamond Mathis, Kent State (8 tackles, 1 sack, 5 QBH)

• WR Allen Middleton, Bowling Green (2 catches)

• QB Hunter Simmons, Wisconsin (7-of-9, 70 yards, 1 TD)

• RB Jerrian Parker, Sam Houston (3 carries)

• LS Ross Pedro, Northern Illinois (Snapped in all 3 games)

• DT Elijah Gunn, Cincinnati (1 tackle)

There are still 10 FCS vs. FBS games remaining in 2025, but eight of those are versus Power 4 programs, where the FCS team will be heavy underdogs.

None of the remaining games involves an MVFC program, which means SIU will remain the only conference program to beat an FBS team in the last four seasons, heading into 2026.